No Turn On Red

Retail sales in July continued to be a mixture of disappointment and mediocrity.

Retailers catering to teens saw a mixed bag of results as teens decided to spend more money at Aeropostale (same store sales up 6%) and Buckle (same store sales up 2.8%), but both retailers missed analysts projections. American Eagle saw an 11% drop in same store sales, on top of the 7% drop they saw this time last year. Abercrombie & Fitch continued their terminal velocity fall with a 28% drop in same store sales. No good.

Macy’s saw a 10.7% drop in same store sales, JCPenney reported a 12.3% drop in same store sales, while Kohl’s managed to eek out a nearly flat month (0.4% increase in same store sales). I guess shoppers are really going nuts over that new line by Avirl Lavigne.

Besides the general state of the economy and unemployment through the course of the year, some analysts suggest that the, recently enacted and more recently refueled, Cash for Clunkers program is diverting money from the retail industry:

“One of the unintended negative side effects of the cash for clunkers program was that it’s going to remove money that probably would have been spent in retail stores and restaurants and is now going to go toward a car payment,” said Purdue Consumer Sciences Professor Dr. Richard Feinberg.

And not just “spare change.”

Feinberg estimates the nation’s retailers could lose up to $300 million a month as consumers spend their disposable income on loans instead of lunch. By the end of what’s expected to be another tough holiday shopping season, losses could add up to between $1.5 billion and $2.5 billion, Feinberg says.

More information on retail sales from the New York Times and Los Angeles Times.

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Valentine’s Day is just a few days away. I wanted to see how various retailers are promoting the holiday in order to see how they are working to increase last minute sales. Below you’ll see screenshots of various e-commerce sites that are ready for the Holiday: from department stores, to jewelry, candy, and lingerie.

I find it interesting to see a holiday like Valentine’s Day play out over the web. On one hand, there is the traditional retail focus on jewelry, flowers, and accessories but they are interspersed with free shipping promotions, shipping guidelines, and gift finders. Throw in a lot of red, red, and more red and you have the state of e-commerce as we run full force into the Valentine’s Day holiday.

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Office Depot has announced that they are closing 112 under performing stores over the next three months. In addition, they are slowing their expansion plans for 2009. Three stores are closing in my area. Office Depot joins Circuit City, Linens N Things and Boscov’s as retailers who have closed up shop in Monmouth County.

Last year, Office Max closed all but one of their locations in my county. With Office Depot leaving, this leaves Staples as the only national office supply chain with more than one location here.

Kohl’s has announced that they’ve entered into an agreement with Iconix Brands to become the sole distributor of Mudd Apparel. Starting in July of 2009, Kohl’s will oversee the product design and manufacturing of the Mudd line. Kohl’s currently carries the Mudd line in Juniors and Girls apparel, sleepwear, jewelry, accessories, and footwear. While the deal does not include the exclusivity to the footwear line, this deal expands on the success that Kohl’s has seen with the exclusive Candies’ brand license within the same departments.

In other Kohl’s news: Former Kohl’s executive vice president, Thomas Kingsbury, has been named the new president and CEO of Burlington Coat Factory. Kingsbury was previously the CEO and president of the Filene’s/Kaufmann’s division of May Department Stores. Kingsbury joined Kohl’s after Federated Department Stores acquired Department Stores.

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Couple of stories that I’m reading this morning:

CNBC’s got a great run down on Amazon’s holiday strategy. The online retailer saw a 42% sales growth in Q4 2007 and forecasts 12 – 15% growth this year. Remarkable feat considering consumer spending is forecast to be down this season. The retailer looks to siphon sales from other retailers by offering low prices and “ridiculous deals”.

Shop.org has released more data on expected consumer habits through this Holiday season and especially for this weekend. Bottom line, consumers are using the web to enhance their real world shopping experience. Be prepared.

Just on the heals of reporting very soft e-commerce sales growth in October, Comscore forecasts flat growth in e-commerce sales for this holiday season. They estimate a 4% decline in sales through the first 23 days of the Nov-Dev shopping season.

Earlier today I talked about JCPenney’s use of social media, Twitter, and viral marketing. I missed this press release from the retailer detailing some of the improvements they’ve launched on jcp.com for a better online shopping experience. More product photos, customer reviews, and more online-only promotions. Kohl’s holiday strategy also emphasized a better online experience.

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Over at ecommr, we’ve been adding e-commerce elements related to Black Friday. Head to ecommr to see a roundup of the different banners, homepage landing, and e-mails that retailers are using to promote their Black Friday specials. More will be added as we come across them.

As a related note, it appears (to me) that retailers are being more aggressive in their marketing for Black Friday, with earlier campaigns and with more detail. Normally, promoting specific price points for comes right before Thanksgiving. But this week has been filled with “online previews”, television commercials, and e-mail marketing that seems to be more aggressive and detailed than years past. Retailers are trying to step up their game in order to capture a larger piece of the shrinking sales pie.

Walmart and Target both have their Black Friday ads online and featured prominently on their homepages. Kohl’s even has an entire section on their site that allows customers to browse the Black Friday ad and make a printable shopping list.

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Last week, Kohl’s discussed some of their holiday marketing strategies with the press. They plan on increasing their spending to capture a larger share of the dwindling holiday sales figures, with increased emphasis on direct mail, e-mail campaigns, and online-only sale prices.

Going into the holiday season, the retailer, which has seen Web sales increase by more than 50% so far this year, is making a big push online as well. It plans to send email blasts out to 15 million shoppers — more than double the number that it had on its electronic mailing list last year — and it’s offering one or two specially discounted items on Kohls.com every day through Christmas.

Their website has started advertising these online-only specials on their homepage, with a callout that went live this week (apparently):

This is a very interesting shift in marketing for the retailer that has, until now, always offered consistent pricing in-store and online. Their marketing campaigns even advertised this fact and, for years, coupons that were sent out to customers, in direct mail, were also good online.

Kohl’s needs to be aggressive in order to increase their market share this holiday season. This is a perfect opportunity for the retailer to utilize a service, like Twitter, to advertise these special, limited-time promotions. It is obvious that they want to aggressively promote these deals as they they are utilizing prime screen real estate to push the deal. It even appears that they already have a Twitter account, although with zero posts. They should be using this to promote the daily deals and reach more people, one-on-one.

The usage of the service would be simply – they’d just need to follow the example that other retailers have set to announce daily deals. I look at the Amazon MP3 Deal of the Day and Woot.com as two examples of retailers using the service to effectively promote daily deals.

Maybe the first step, for a retailer like Kohl’s, is the use the service to promote daily deals and then they can evolve into using the service to engage customers in conversation. I think there is always more room for retailers to use Twitter to reach their customers.

What do you think?

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Members of the family that founded and, for many years, ran the Boscov department store chain have revealed that they have bid to buy back the stores current under bankruptcy protection:

Albert R. Boscov and his brother-in-law Edwin A. Lakin are among the group who put in an offer for Boscov’s Inc., in a bankruptcy auction that culminates next week with the selection of a winning bidder, Boscov said in a report published today.

The pair, who helped run the company for decades, received multimillion-dollar buyout packages when they retired in January 2006 and handed the controls to Lakin’s son, chief executive officer Ken Lakin.

Boscov’s, you may remember, filed for bankruptcy protection in August and immediately closed 10 of their 49 stores. The remaining 39 stores are still operating under bankruptcy protection while bids are accepted that will determine the future of the company.

The deadline for bids was October 15 and more information may be revealed next week as to who the new owner will be. The other top bidder is Versa Capital Management.

I’d like to see someone buy Boscov’s who will continue to operate it. It’s a respectable mid-size department store chain. While my local Boscov’s has already closed, I hope the other 39 can remain open as long as financially feasible.

With the economy as it stands today, I can’t really imagine someone buying the chain with the intention to shut it down and sell off the real estate. There’s not a huge market for mall anchor real estate right now. Other department store chains, like Kohl’s and JC Penney, have already announced reductions in their short-term growth plans. Who else would be moving in to these locations?

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The stimulus checks have been (presumably) spent, back to school shopping is underway, and the retail sales numbers for July are in and they are, well, pretty ugly. A lot of retailers posting negative same-store-sales numbers for the month, many of them posting numbers that fell below Wall Street’s expectations. Wall Street is responding – as of 12:30, the S&P Retail Index is down around $7.

The negative results are hitting all segments of retailers – from department stores to the mall, teen retailers to mass market merchandisers. Wal-Mart posted a positive sales increase of 3.0%, but that is less than the 3.5% increase that Wall Street was looking for. Target saw same store sales drop 1.2% in the month of July and warn that August isn’t going to be much better. JCPeneny’s sales dropped 6.5% but raised their Q2 guidance “due to better than expected sell-through of promotionally priced merchandise and continued expense management measures.” Kohl’s saw a steep 10.4 drop in same store sales in the month.

Gap saw negative numbers across all brands – Old Navy down 16%, Banana Republic down 8%, and Gap North America down 6%. When are they going to spin off the Old Navy brand, sell it, and let someone else deal with the turnaround?

Teen retailers aren’t seeing the Back to School numbers they hoped for with American Eagle down 7%, PacSun was down 4%, Abercrombie & Fitch (as a company) was down 7% (with only A&F proper posting flat numbers, up 1% for the month. Hollister was down 11% – blowing away the 4.1% decrease expected by analysts), but Aeropostale saw sales jump 13%.

More coverage from CNN/Money, Forbes, and Marketwatch.

Reminder, all of July’s numbers are available to analyze over at our partner site, Retail Numbers.

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A few of the stories I’m reading and wanted to share today:

John Zogby’s got a very insightful look into the political trends of retail consumers and dives behind the numbers to make sense of it all. He looks at presidential election polling numbers, the retailers the customers shop at, and how this relates to the retailers’ branding.

J.Crew’s website has had their share of mistakes and downtime lately. Church of the Customer is talking about the apology e-mail that the retailer sent out to their customers and what this means for the company.

Matt at A New Marketing presents a clean, easily digestable definition of what social media is.

.. and finally – Starbucks is offering a $2 discount on iced beverages in the afternoon when you buy a drink in the morning. I think this is a smart move that should drive repeat business throughout the day. Besides that, I’m selfish and now look forward to saving a little bit of money on my second trip to Starbucks every day.

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Today, JCPenney has announced the launch of a new activewear line called Xersion. The line, developed, sourced, and designed by the retailer, fits in the “better” pricepoint of Womens activewear. This is one of the six brands JCPenney is launching with this back to school season.

More details are available in their own press release.

Timing of this launch is interesting as Kohl’s readies to launch their exclusive licensing agreement for activewear with Fila. Makes sense that JCPenney would want to ramp up their private label activewear offerings.

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