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Online retail still viable to traditional retailers

The New York Times ran a report this weekend, suggesting that online retail sales may be losing steam. The report has gotten a lot of people talking across the industry, but it is slightly misleading. While the year over year growth may slow down a bit, overall retail sales will continue to grow with the help of online sales.

Retailers need to continue adapting their online retail strategies. I think the most growth will still be seen within traditional (”brick and mortar”) retailers who create an online experience that is an extension of the in-store shopping experience. This will continue to create consumers who are better informed, make more confident purchases, and feel a stronger connection to the retailer.

Traditional retailers should begin to view their online presence as an extension of their brand. They should seek to create communities around their brand instead of just pushing products. There is still a lot of room to grow in this area. The result will a more loyal customer and an increase in overall sales.

Margaret Brennan at CNBC writes that online shopping is not dead yet. Good look at the rise in non-traditional online sales, including sales in footwear and apparel.

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Wal-Mart to cut back on expansion

Over at Big Box Watch, I’ve noted that Wal-Mart has announced that they are scaling back their expansion efforts. New store growth will be reduced to 170 supercenters next year, down from 270 stores that they had originally planned to open this year.

This move by Wal-Mart is a long time coming. The rate that the retailer grew eventually would have to end. Wal-Mart needs to reevaluate their offerings and fuel growth from within, rather than fuel growth with new stores. Their comp store sales have not been strong in a long time, and now they have to figure out way.

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6/11/06 Retail Notes

The second half of last week was crazy busy for me. Let me catch up on a few of the stories I missed last week:

Fendi sues Wal-Mart over sales of fake handbags:

Italian fashion group Fendi S.R.L. sued Wal-Mart Stores Inc. in U.S. federal court on Friday, accusing the world’s largest retailer of selling counterfeit handbags and passing them off as genuine at its Sam’s Club warehouse stores.

Sam’s Club stores in California, New York, Florida and other states sold knock off handbags, wallets and key chains that were identified as “genuine” Fendi products, according to the lawsuit filed in U.S. District Court in Manhattan.

The suit by Fendi said that Wal-Mart has never purchased its products and never asked Fendi if any of the items bearing its trademark were genuine.

Having never stepped foot into a Sam’s Club, I’m suprised to even imagine that they would carry any Fendi products. This suit will be interesting to watch to see where the blame, if any, lies within Wal-Mart. Is this the case of an over-zealous buyer making sure they’re meeting “always low prices” or is this the case of Fendi not happy that their goods somehow ended up in Sam’s Club?

Good coverage in the comments over at Wake Up Walmart

More about the changes at Federated as the September transition to the Macy’s brand approaches. Here’s the rundown: Macy’s is the brand that people response to the most nationally, even if people in this article are negative about the loss of their regional department stores. Expect less promotions and increased private-label and exclusive offerings, as well as stores tailored to the region that they are in, so that Federated can maintain some of the things that people loved about all of the chains that they’ve swallowed up. Very informative article, though.

And lastly, two food-related quickies about two different chains who are being compared to Starbucks:

First is Dunkin Donuts, who are obviously competiting in the same space as Starbucks (in the sense that they both sell coffee). Boston.com has an article outlining the future growth plans of this chain. The plan calls for 15,000 U.S. locations in 2020, up from 5,000 today, and this will be done through a variety of store layouts and prototype as well as increased product offerings to drive afternoon business.

Is this all being done in an effort to compete with Starbucks? Not so much, it seems. As a loyal dunkin Donuts coffee drinker, I think that as much as these two brands concentrate around the same product (coffee), there is not too much overlap in their philosophy and themes, so I can see both of them co-existing pretty well in the world we live in. Seriously, though, whoever thought that there will be a day that we will live in a world with tens of thousands of locations of the same two stores?

The other eatery being compared to Starbucks doesn’t deal with coffee, but instead deals with ice cream.

USA Today has an article outlining the future growth of Cold Stone Creamery and the ice cream business in general. Two quotes that sum up this article really well are the following:

Cold Stone doesn’t just sell sundaes and sorbet, it sells sizzle. “It’s like Starbucks for kids,” says George Carey, president of Just Kid, a consulting firm.

and

An industry that once sold ice cream now is selling an ice cream experience.

Tonight I went to Friendly’s to get a large Reese’s Peanut Butter Cup sundae. I’m not concerned with the experience, I just want good ice cream. But with that said, it will be very hard for me to resist the new Cold Stone Creamery that they are building three minutes from my house.

That’s all I got tonight.

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Retail roundup - Q1 results, JC Penney

Like Kohl’s, JC Penney also released some very solid numbers for the quarter: overall sales up 2.5%, comp store sales up 1.3% for the 12th consecutive quarter of positive same store sales, and profits up 22.1%. The company cites strong sales in fine jewelry, mens, childrens, and footwear while they say sales were soft in womens apparel, unlike rival Kohl’s.

According to president Ken Hicks on the conference call, “gross margin continues to benefit from the performance of our private brands, as well as continuing improvement in seasonal transition and merchandise flow.” This follows up his earlier remarks on womens apparel, when he said “In our women’s apparel business, we are taking aggressive action with markdowns to keep our inventory fresh, as well as building or key brands and adding new brands such as a.n.a. In addition, we continue to develop brands such as [E. Spiff], which we will introduce this fall in traditional careerwear.”

This call also gave us the first real look at the partnership between JC Penney and Sephora. Outlining the future rollout, Ken Hicks said “Beginning this fall, we will bring Sephora into a handful of JCPenney stores, and next year, our plans are to add Sephora, primarily in new stores, with some additional existing stores also having the concept. A more extensive Sephora rollout is planned for 2008.”

Walking into any JC Penney these days, one can see that there is opportunities to develop their womens apparel business further. Hicks blames this on general negative trends in fashion, (”.. the lack of really exciting things in fashion aren’t helping the business”) which completely suprises me. It’s clear that JC Penney may not be offering really exciting things in fashion, but don’t blame it on fashion in general.

Back to the numbers: direct sales via catalog were up 3.9%, but Internet sales were up over 22%. The modest gains in diret mail, which have been continuing to slip, lead me into the news that they have announced that they are de-emphasizing the catalog (via marketingblurb).

JC Penney is not suspending their print catalog, but at the annual ACCM Catalog Conference, a company official announced that the retail giant would focus on online rather than catalog sales. It seems that their online sales are growing at 23% per year, while print sales are at 10% growth and falling every year.

DMNews has more on the story. In fact, they are critical of the move, saying:

Former Lands’ End president/CEO Mindy Meads at the Philadelphia eTail 2005 conference cited a study claiming that customers who get catalogs generate a 15 percent increase in transactions and a 16 percent jump in overall spend.

Retailers like J.C. Penney don’t want to lose the chance to train the next generation of shoppers — kids watching Mom and Dad open the catalogs, then call in an order or go online. No catalog, no brand recall. Too much reliance on one channel of sales is not good, either. What if there is more stringent regulation down the road for e-mail and e-commerce?

Again, more here via DMNews.com

Like I’ve talked about before, JC Penney is at a stage where they can recapture what they are missing - through initiatives like the Sephora deal, building the private brands and even sponsoring the MTV Video Music Awards. As a consumer, I think their key to winning us back is through developing brands that we want to shop and making their buildings more exciting and fun to shop. I can’t tell you the last time I’ve gone into a JC Penny that hasn’t felt dated and stale.

JC Penney had a good quarter - higher profits on only slightly higher sales - and this could set them up for a very solid year.

More information via marketwatch.com’s coverage of the results. Retailstockblog has a complete transcript of the call, as well.

The full SEC form 8-k is here, via Yahoo.

Full transcript of the conference call from Seeking Alpha.

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Kohl’s Shareholder Meeting

This week I got to spend two days in Wisconsin attending the Kohl’s Shareholder Meeting. The company sends one represenative from every store to the meeting. It is a very fun, informative and interesting two days in the Midwest. In years past, anyone I’ve known who has gone to it has said that they’ve come back re-energized and excited. That describes how I am feeling very well. I give the company a lot of credit for the logistical nightmare that they put themselves through in order to make sure that every store is represented, but they pulled it off flawlessly and allowed us all to have a really great time.

I’m not going to discuss any of the real details of the meeting here, however the Milwaukee Business Journal has a good recap of the public portion of the event.

On expansion:

Kohl’s also set its 2006 expansion plans at 85 new stores, primarily in the Midwest and Southeast, and said it will build a distribution center in California in support of its western expansion. The company had previously said it would add 80 to 85 stores this year. In all, the company hopes to grow its total number of stores to 1,200 by 2010, accompanied by net income growth of 15 percent to 20 percent.

On Jersey City:

A quarter of the new stores will be smaller than the traditional Kohl’s store, Meier said. One store will be a two-story, 133,000-square-foot facility in a converted Macy’s in Jersey City, N.J., a style that better fits in urban areas, she said. The traditional Kohl’s store is about 86,000 square feet. The smaller stores are about 68,000 square feet.

(According to this article, original from the Jersey Journal, the Jersey City store may in fact be a little larger than that - clocking in a 159,642 square feet.)

And finally, on last year’s fiscal performance:

The company reported that net income for the 12 months ended Jan. 28, 2006, increased 19.7 percent to $842 million, or $2.43 per share, compared with $703.4 million, or $2.04 per share, a year ago. Net income has increased at a compounded annual growth rate of 19.7 percent, the company said. Net sales increased 14.5 percent to $13.4 billion compared with $11.7 billion a year ago. Comparable store sales — sales at stores open during both years — increased 3.4 percent for the year.

Good times. The rest of the article is here. More information via Reuters and Kohl’s press release.

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