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Retailers See Mixed Results in June

Le Chateau Yonge & Bloor Toronto

Another mixed month for retail sales.  While some retailers rebounded and look to go into Back to School on a positive note, it was another dark month for some mall and teen retailers.

Wal-Mart beat expectations with a 5.8% increase in June (showing 6.1% increase at their US name-brand stores and a 4.6% increase at their Sam’s Club locations). Target ended up in positive territory with a 0.4% uptick in same store sales. Costco showed a 9% increase, Kohl’s beat estimates with a 2.3% increase, and even mall retailer Aeropostale showed gains with a 12% increase in June.

The month was not as kind to mall and teel retailers such as Gap (company down 7%), Abercrombie (down 3%), and American Eagle (down 11%).

June’s numbers have been posted to Retail Numbers, which allows you to chart and track the retail industry monthly same-store sales.

More coverage from Fox Business and the Associated Press.


Photo above from Flickr user James@mannequindisplay. com, used under Creative Commons.

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Q2 Earnings, American Eagle Outfitters

What a quarter these guys had:

American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (NASDAQ:AEOS) today announced that earnings for the second quarter ended July 29, 2006 increased 27% to $0.47 per diluted share from $0.37 per diluted share for the quarter ended July 30, 2005. Included in the second quarter 2006 earnings per diluted share of $0.47 is $0.01 per share of stock option expense, which was not included last year. Net income for the fiscal 2006 second quarter increased to $72.1 million from $58.0 million for the same period last year.

“American Eagle delivered solid top-line growth, outstanding profitability and strong cash flow for the second quarter of 2006,” said CEO Jim O’Donnell. “I am very pleased with this performance, especially in light of the investments we are making in our future growth initiatives, such as our real estate strategy, aerie intimates sub-brand and our new MARTIN + OSA concept. These results are clearly the by-product of a strong and successful team effort across our organization.”

(See full press release here.)

A record earnings quarter for American Eagle and this doesn’t look like a blip – it looks like they are poised for a great second half of 2006.

The key to their success this quarter has really been their mixture of trend-right and basic fashion. They adknowledge that not everyone is ready to go after the latest trends, and their assortment has reflected this. They refer to their denim assortment as over “90% new” in style and washes. The AMC Movie Ticket promotion was a great opportunity to get people in the door and into the dressing room. They seem to be very pleased with how that worked out.

Growth in sales, growth in profit, growth in bottom line performance, growth in transactions per store. They are nailing almost everything that they need to nail. This store is going to be a power house going into the rest of the year.

Some more coverage from The Street and the Motley Fool.

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The impact of New Jersey’s rising sales tax

Yesterday, the sales tax in New Jersey rose from 6% to 7%. This is due to the new budget that was signed after the statewide shut down last week – I’m sure you heard about this.

If you live in the area and read the newspaper or watch the local news, you’ve seen a number of stories on this. The media has been talking about how this is going to change consumers spending habits and they’ve basically made it seem that the New Jersey economy is about to collapse, because of the 1% increase.

Let me tell you a secret – the impact of the rising sales tax on New Jersey’s economy isn’t as dire as the media is making it seem.

Although sales tax is lower in Pennsylvania (6%) and Delaware (none!), New Jersey’s 7% sales tax is equal to the sales tax in Philadelphia and still lower than the sales tax in most of New York state.

Like Pennsylvania, apparel is still completely exempt from sales tax. As of right now, only 11 counties and 5 cities exempt apparel purchases up to $110. On April 1, 2006, New York state took away their statewide 4% on apparel purchases up to $110, however the counties/cities not listed above, local taxes (in the area of 4%) still apply.

The Route 17 corridor in Bergen County benefits greatly from the New York sales tax on clothing. The area boasts a number of retailers, including Kohl’s, Marshalls, TJ Maxx, and Lane Bryant. Travel down 17 more and you have Garden State Plaza and Paramus Park Mall. The entire area capitalizes on the affluence of Bergen County and the sales tax in New York. I’ve known more than a few people who live in the Suffern, NY area who would travel down 17 to do all of their shopping.

The major effect on the tax changes is going to be on car dealerships, who, in addition to the 1% increase, now face a surchage on vehicles costing over $45,000 and vehicles that get less than 19 mpg. But how noticable will this be, in the scheme of things? With the rise in gas prices, more and more people have long been making the switch to fuel-efficient vehicles. This surcharge is just another variable for a purchaser to consider.

And, maybe I’m off base because I don’t know the extent of the over $45,000 surcharge, but I don’t think it will hurt auto retailers all that much. In today’s economy, the person who is purchasing a car with that sticker price, probably isn’t going to be effected as much by a surcharge or fuel prices.

One article, from northjersey.com ["Shoppers sigh, dig a little deeper as sales tax hike boosts their bills"], seems to agree with me by pointing out that first day sales weren’t effected much:

At Maroon Auto Group’s KIA dealership on Hamburg Turnpike owner Ray Maroon said business is booming.

Customers, he said, are less concerned about a 1 percent tax hike than they are about fuel efficiency and savings.

“We delivered 10 cars last night and today,” he said, adding that three were sold on Saturday morning. “People aren’t complaining too much about the 1 percent … Since this thing has flared up in the Middle East, we’ve seen tremendous reaction, because they’re trading in very, very large vehicles, and it’s amazing.”

Economists estimate that the rise will cost the average New Jersey family $276 over the course of a year. The larger issue is that $276 is going to effect a family in Cumberland or Salem counties much more than a family in Somerset or Morris counties [see: New Jersey locations by per capita income].

I believe there will be localized fluctuations in consumer spending, but the state economy will be fine. Consumers have a way of reacting and adapting to all of the variables that the economy throws at them. I don’t think retailers in New Jersey should be, or are, as concerned about the rise in the sales tax as they are concerned about the rise of the price of oil, the conflict in the Middle East or interest rate levels.

A 1% rise in the sales tax is just a blip in the grand scheme of things that drive consumer spending habits.

With all of this said, can I just point out how ridiculous the local media has been? All week I’ve watched news reports showing luxury car dealerships, boat dealerships, and other very high-ticket items. One report on NBC said that the price of a new boat would rise over $2,000! But of course the sticker price on that particular boat was over $200,0000. I don’t think that the person buying that boat is going to be too concerned with 1%.

Also let me leave you with this gem of a quote, from the previously linked to article from northjersey.com:

The new tax would add another $1,035 to the $103,500 price of a concert grand piano, said John E. Weiss, a salesman at Steinway & Sons in Paramus.

I’ll just leave that one alone for now.

More local coverage from the Asbury Park Press: New car buyers feel brunt of newly imposed higher state taxes and New Jersey more expensive place now.

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$376 million IPO for J.Crew

J. Crew

J. Crew’s IPO today was pretty successful.

Strong interest in the stock priced it higher than originally anticipated (target was $15-17/share, offering price was actually $20) yet the stock still climbed over 25% in first day trading, currently hovering at $25.78 in after hours trading. The IPO raised $376 million, making it the third largest retail apparel IPO in history(after Intimate Brands in 1995 and Saks Holdings in 1996) in history.

Good day for J. Crew, indeed.

Not a bad day for Millard Drexler, who has led the turnaround of the company over the past few years, either. He also has a 22% stake in the company, making him $82 million richer right now (on paper, at least).

Here’s a run down of the coverage: ABC News/Associated Press, Reuters, MSNBC and Bloomberg.

In celebration of today’s IPO, I wore my favorite J.Crew dress shirt to work today. It wasn’t actually planned, it just happened to be the cleanest thing in my closet this morning.

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Retail roundup – Q1 results, Kohls

The first batch of retail Q1 results are in and I’m going to start touching on some of them.

Kohl’s came out swinging with some extremely strong numbers for the quarter: 16% increase in sales, 6.9% increase in comp store sales, and quarterly profits up 34%. President Kevin Mansell says that there were strong sales in the contemporary and updated lifestyle classifications of women’s apparel, with strong response to the introduction of Chaps brand for Women, by Polo Ralph Lauren Corp, and the private AB Studio brand. Across the store, Chaps for Boys and Tony Hawk for Young Mens & Boys also saw positive response.

From marketwatch.com’s coverage of the conference call:

In response to an analyst’s question, Chairman and Chief Executive Larry Montgomery said Kohl’s has had only limited experience competing against a new, off-mall store format that J.C. Penney is beginning to roll out more rapidly this year. While Kohl’s stores have typically taken a short-term sales hit when a new Penney store opens nearby, they soon recover to normal levels, he said.

“I would suggest that probably when we open up, we probably hit them harder than when they open up,” Montgomery said.

Jeremy MacNealy at the motleyfool thinks very highly of Kohl’s stock right now, noting:

As a result of new brand and marketing initiatives to draw first-time customers to the stores, transactions for the quarter were up 4.8% compared to the same period a year ago. On top of this, transaction value rose 2.1% year over year, leading to overall comparable same-store growth of 6.9%.

He goes on to say:

Prospective investors will want to inspect the company’s free cash flow generation once the figures are made available in its 10-Q filing. But from just an earnings perspective, at roughly 18 times projected current-year earnings, this stock is reasonably priced, given the kind of growth rates we are currently witnessing. The market may be soaking sweat with concern, but Kohl’s shareholders have good reason to keep smiling.

More in his article, Kohl’s is Cruising.

Full SEC Form 8-k filing here, via Yahoo.

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Kohl’s Shareholder Meeting

This week I got to spend two days in Wisconsin attending the Kohl’s Shareholder Meeting. The company sends one represenative from every store to the meeting. It is a very fun, informative and interesting two days in the Midwest. In years past, anyone I’ve known who has gone to it has said that they’ve come back re-energized and excited. That describes how I am feeling very well. I give the company a lot of credit for the logistical nightmare that they put themselves through in order to make sure that every store is represented, but they pulled it off flawlessly and allowed us all to have a really great time.

I’m not going to discuss any of the real details of the meeting here, however the Milwaukee Business Journal has a good recap of the public portion of the event.

On expansion:

Kohl’s also set its 2006 expansion plans at 85 new stores, primarily in the Midwest and Southeast, and said it will build a distribution center in California in support of its western expansion. The company had previously said it would add 80 to 85 stores this year. In all, the company hopes to grow its total number of stores to 1,200 by 2010, accompanied by net income growth of 15 percent to 20 percent.

On Jersey City:

A quarter of the new stores will be smaller than the traditional Kohl’s store, Meier said. One store will be a two-story, 133,000-square-foot facility in a converted Macy’s in Jersey City, N.J., a style that better fits in urban areas, she said. The traditional Kohl’s store is about 86,000 square feet. The smaller stores are about 68,000 square feet.

(According to this article, original from the Jersey Journal, the Jersey City store may in fact be a little larger than that – clocking in a 159,642 square feet.)

And finally, on last year’s fiscal performance:

The company reported that net income for the 12 months ended Jan. 28, 2006, increased 19.7 percent to $842 million, or $2.43 per share, compared with $703.4 million, or $2.04 per share, a year ago. Net income has increased at a compounded annual growth rate of 19.7 percent, the company said. Net sales increased 14.5 percent to $13.4 billion compared with $11.7 billion a year ago. Comparable store sales — sales at stores open during both years — increased 3.4 percent for the year.

Good times. The rest of the article is here. More information via Reuters and Kohl’s press release.

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