No Turn On Red

Retail sales in July continued to be a mixture of disappointment and mediocrity.

Retailers catering to teens saw a mixed bag of results as teens decided to spend more money at Aeropostale (same store sales up 6%) and Buckle (same store sales up 2.8%), but both retailers missed analysts projections. American Eagle saw an 11% drop in same store sales, on top of the 7% drop they saw this time last year. Abercrombie & Fitch continued their terminal velocity fall with a 28% drop in same store sales. No good.

Macy’s saw a 10.7% drop in same store sales, JCPenney reported a 12.3% drop in same store sales, while Kohl’s managed to eek out a nearly flat month (0.4% increase in same store sales). I guess shoppers are really going nuts over that new line by Avirl Lavigne.

Besides the general state of the economy and unemployment through the course of the year, some analysts suggest that the, recently enacted and more recently refueled, Cash for Clunkers program is diverting money from the retail industry:

“One of the unintended negative side effects of the cash for clunkers program was that it’s going to remove money that probably would have been spent in retail stores and restaurants and is now going to go toward a car payment,” said Purdue Consumer Sciences Professor Dr. Richard Feinberg.

And not just “spare change.”

Feinberg estimates the nation’s retailers could lose up to $300 million a month as consumers spend their disposable income on loans instead of lunch. By the end of what’s expected to be another tough holiday shopping season, losses could add up to between $1.5 billion and $2.5 billion, Feinberg says.

More information on retail sales from the New York Times and Los Angeles Times.

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December wasn’t kind to Macy’s as they saw a 4.0% drop in same store sales and have now announced that they are closing 11 stores. Combining November and December, same store sales dropped 7.5% over last year for the retailer.

Close to 1,000 employees are affected by these store closings – unknown how many fo them will be able to transfer to positions in other stores.

From their press release, the closing stores are:

• Ernst & Young Plaza (Citicorp Plaza), Los Angeles, CA (135,000 square feet; 136 employees; opened in 1986)
• The Citadel, Colorado Springs, CO (195,000 square feet; 105 employees; opened in 1984)
• Westminster Mall, Westminster, CO (156,000 square feet; 110 employees; opened in 1986)
• Palm Beach Mall, West Palm Beach, FL (190,000 square feet; 71 employees; opened in 1979)
• Mauna Lani Bay Hotel, Island of Hawaii, HI (3,000 square feet; 3 employees; opened in 1983)
• Lafayette Square, Indianapolis, IN (160,000 square feet; 84 employees; opened in 1974)
• Brookdale Center, Brooklyn Center, MN (195,000 square feet; 72 employees; opened in 1966)
• Crestwood Mall, St. Louis, MO (166,000 square feet; 176 employees; opened in 1969)
• Natrona Heights Plaza, Natrona Heights, PA (73,000 square feet; 124 employees; opened in 1956)
• Century III Furniture and Clearance, West Mifflin, PA (83,000 square feet; 3 employees; opened in 2000)
• Bellevue Center, Nashville, TN (211,000 square feet; 76 employees; opened in 1990).

These store closings represent a troubling sign of things to come for the retail industry. I believe Macy’s is just the first in a line of retailers to announce downsizing over the next few weeks. Who’s next?

More coverage from the Consumerist, Reuters and BloggingStocks.

Photo above from Flickr user pkeleher. Use under Creative Commons License.

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A few of the stories I’m reading and wanted to share today:

John Zogby’s got a very insightful look into the political trends of retail consumers and dives behind the numbers to make sense of it all. He looks at presidential election polling numbers, the retailers the customers shop at, and how this relates to the retailers’ branding.

J.Crew’s website has had their share of mistakes and downtime lately. Church of the Customer is talking about the apology e-mail that the retailer sent out to their customers and what this means for the company.

Matt at A New Marketing presents a clean, easily digestable definition of what social media is.

.. and finally – Starbucks is offering a $2 discount on iced beverages in the afternoon when you buy a drink in the morning. I think this is a smart move that should drive repeat business throughout the day. Besides that, I’m selfish and now look forward to saving a little bit of money on my second trip to Starbucks every day.

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This morning, Dell announced new styles of their Inspiron series of laptops that will be available in a range of colors. Available in 8 colors (pink, yellow, white, red, black, blue and espresso), the laptops will start out at $749. While this isn’t a typical retail-related post, it is interesting because Dell chose to make this announcement with the backdrop of Macy’s Herald Square.

In addition to the new laptop colors, they’ve unveiled the ultra-thin XPS M1330 laptop and have extended the Inspiron line (traditionally a laptop line for Dell) into desktop PCs and monitors. The new Inspiron desktop line will feature “clean arctic white and silver design”.

One of the secrets to Apple’s success over recent years has been in providing consumers with well designed and exciting devices. Dell has lost market share, in the PC laptop field, to HP and they are trying to reclaim it by employing a tactic similar to what has been successful for Apple. By using Macy’s, as part of the unveiling, they are trying to reach out to a fashion-forward customer (who wants a pink laptop).

More information on the Inspiron notebooks is available on the Dell website.

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In one of the odder pairings of retail giants in recent memory, Dell computers has announced that they are going to be unveiling new consumer products tomorrow morning at Macy’s Herald Square location:

In a unique event at Macy’s Herald Square in New York, Dell executives will unveil several new and exciting products that deliver a hi-def entertainment experience, true mobility with broadband connectivity anywhere, and style and self expression.

Interesting combination of retailers. Speculation from CNBC is that this could be the announcement of a new line of image conscious laptops that has long been speculated by Engadget (see CNBC’s Margaret Brennan’s blog for more information and Engadget for photos of in-development Dell laptops).

I’m looking forward to see how Macy’s is playing in to this. Will they merely serve as the backdrop for the announcement or is there something more coming out that will surprise a lot of people?

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Some links for today:

First off, two stories from the Consumerist. In one, an Target employee alleges that security there “mostly follows black people”. Article contains a rebuttal on most of the points from another current Target employee. As usual with the Consumerist, great comments on that article with some more interesting information.

Also from the Consumerist, some leaked internal documents from AT&T, in regards to the retail end of the iPhone launch. As the biggest technology and consumer electronics launch of this year, this will have huge implications on retail. With so many people wanting to get it, I’m interested to see how other retailers (non AT&T/Apple) react to this and try to get people to buy their products on iPhone launch day.

Yesterday’s New York Post has an article, Macy’s Margins, on the behind the scenes concerns of Macy’s regional buying officiers and what that means to the consumer.

Finally, Zumiez’s Couch Tour was in Deptford, NJ (just outside of Philadelphia). Reports are that several teenagers were hurt at the concert. But what is amazing to me is that estimates put the crowd at 2,000 to 2,500 people. Great turnout for this event. I’d imagine Zumiez is happy with those kinds of figures. More coverage from the Gloucester County Times.

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Rundown of things I’m digging, on the web, today, June 5:

This link has made it’s way around the web, but for good reason: New York Magazine has provided a fascinating look into how various businesses are run, and able to stay alive, in New York City. Called The Profit Calculator, this article looks at different levels of retail – from Macy’s Herald Square to a dollar store. What makes them work and where does their profit come from? Love this. [via kottke and Signals vs. Noise]

Does Macy’s Herald Square really get 15-20 trucks a day?

Came across a fairly new blog by the name of Talented Blonde. An experience retail analyst blogging provides for some good reading. Today she shares her thoughts on May store comp numbers, which are due to be released later this week, and her projected winners and losers.

I’ve linked to this Service Untitled before and recommend that you check them out often, too. Positive perspective on customer service and ways you can improve your business. Today they’re talking about working for 99% of your customers, not the 1%.

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Today’s Washington Post has a very detailed, in-depth look into teen shopping habits that, I’m guessing, is going to make the rounds at corporate offices of mall retailers today:

Sixty-one teenagers from across the Washington region descended upon Tysons Corner on a recent Saturday. And we were there to capture it all.

We wanted to learn how today’s teens make their purchasing decisions, how they calculate value and how they figure out what’s cool. These teenage volunteers, all between seventh and 11th grade, brought their own money, friends and sense of style. Some came with their parents; some with their parents’ credit card. But all of them brought strong opinions about what they like — and what they don’t.

More than a dozen Washington Post and washingtonpost.com staff members documented the shopping expedition through stories, photographs, audio and video. We gained insight into teen consumer psychology and the latest trends, but we also learned a lot about the teenagers themselves.

With 10 associated articles, photos, video, and an interactive map detailing how many people visited different stores and how much money was spent, this is a rather fascinating read. Detailed, detailed, detailed. Only click on this link if you have time to kill, because it will suck you in with the amount of information available: Tracking Teen Shopping Habits.

I’m not going to be able to sumarize everything that the Washington Post has in that article, but there are a few points that jumped out at me that I’d like to share:

Collectively, the teens spent the most money at Hollister ($498) with Urban Outfitters a distant second ($319). $288 was spent at American Eagle while $198 was spent at Abercrombie & Fitch. Old Navy ranked up there, with over $160 being spent by these teenagers. Non-existant in this group was PacSun, with 10 visits and no money being spent.

These teenagers are smart. One article centers around their price conciousness (When Mom’s Not Paying, Cost Is a Deal-Breaker) and one article is about their shopping strategies (On a Mission to Buy, With a Plan of Attack). These teenagers came equipped with plans, checking out fashion and getting information from the retailer’s websites prior to stepping foot in the mail.

Where’d denim go? These kids aren’t shopping for jeans, apparently.

Teenagers aren’t just shopping at specialty retailers. This group is also looking at Macy’s, Nordstrom, Bloomingdale’s, and Lord and Taylor to find the best deals.

The work put in to this report from the Washington Post is incredible. Like I’ve already said, this is a really fantastic read with a ton of information.

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In case you didn’t realize, today Federated Department Stores changed it’s name to Macy’s, Inc. The name change was first proposed earlier this year, with shareholders approving the change last week. In addition the name change, they also received a new, valuable stock symbol on the NYSE:

Federated first said in March it would change to the ‘M’ symbol from ‘FD,’ and also change its name to Macy’s Inc. Shareholders approved the move in May.

The NYSE does not disclose the exact process it uses to determine whether it will allow a company to have a single-letter ticker, but the assignation is prestigious.

“They’re desirable ticker symbols, valued for marketing reasons and investor relations reasons,” said NYSE spokesman Christiaan Brakman.

In March, NYSE Chief Executive John A. Thain said Macy’s was a good fit for ‘M’ because it is a “marquee name and a brand of great distinction.”

Others single-ticker companies on the New York Stock Exchange _ there are now 16 _ include AT&T Inc., with a ‘T’ ticker symbol, and Sprint Nextel Corp., with an ‘S.’

More from the Associated Press.

Obviously, not everyone is happy with the change. Fans of the Marshall Fields brand have long been blogging at fieldfanschicago.org to express their dismay over Macy’s ditching the Marshall Field’s name and converting all stores to the Macy’s brand.

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If you look at the retail comp store sales numbers for the month of April, you are looking at one ugly picture. But this was to be expected when taking into account the early Easter holiday this year.

For the month of April, the mall posted lackluster numbers: Abercrombie & Fitch saw a decrease of 14% (further breakdown of the brands: A&F adult -13, abercrombie, -18, Holister -17, & Ruehl -6), American Eagle down 10, Aeropostale down 14, Ann Taylor -12.8 (further breakdown of the brands: Ann Taylor -8.2 & Ann Taylor LOFT -17.4), Gap Inc down 16 (further breakdown of the brands: Gap North America -14, Banana Republic -13, Old Navy -20, and the International division -5), Hot Topic -9.1, Limited Brands -1.0, PacSun -14.

Some department stores saw slightly better numbers, but not all of them. Winners included Nordstrom (up 3.1) and Saks Fifth Avenue (up 11.7!!). On the flipside, Kohl’s was down 10.5, Federated was down 2.2, JCPenney was down 4.7, and Dillard’s was down 14.0.

Target saw a drop of 6.1 and Wal-Mart was down 3.5.

These numbers are bad, but are the indiciative of a worrisome trend? Look at March’s numbers and remember that these April numbers don’t include Easter. I think there are some retailers who are struggling, but the industry as a whole is just fine. A better picture of retail health will be seen over the next two weeks as retailers release their second quarter earnings results.

More information from Minyanville and the New York Times.

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