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Retail sales in July remain sluggish; Cash for Clunkers to blame?

Retail sales in July continued to be a mixture of disappointment and mediocrity.

Retailers catering to teens saw a mixed bag of results as teens decided to spend more money at Aeropostale (same store sales up 6%) and Buckle (same store sales up 2.8%), but both retailers missed analysts projections. American Eagle saw an 11% drop in same store sales, on top of the 7% drop they saw this time last year. Abercrombie & Fitch continued their terminal velocity fall with a 28% drop in same store sales. No good.

Macy’s saw a 10.7% drop in same store sales, JCPenney reported a 12.3% drop in same store sales, while Kohl’s managed to eek out a nearly flat month (0.4% increase in same store sales). I guess shoppers are really going nuts over that new line by Avirl Lavigne.

Besides the general state of the economy and unemployment through the course of the year, some analysts suggest that the, recently enacted and more recently refueled, Cash for Clunkers program is diverting money from the retail industry:

“One of the unintended negative side effects of the cash for clunkers program was that it’s going to remove money that probably would have been spent in retail stores and restaurants and is now going to go toward a car payment,” said Purdue Consumer Sciences Professor Dr. Richard Feinberg.

And not just “spare change.”

Feinberg estimates the nation’s retailers could lose up to $300 million a month as consumers spend their disposable income on loans instead of lunch. By the end of what’s expected to be another tough holiday shopping season, losses could add up to between $1.5 billion and $2.5 billion, Feinberg says.

More information on retail sales from the New York Times and Los Angeles Times.

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July Retail Sales Disappoint Everyone

The stimulus checks have been (presumably) spent, back to school shopping is underway, and the retail sales numbers for July are in and they are, well, pretty ugly. A lot of retailers posting negative same-store-sales numbers for the month, many of them posting numbers that fell below Wall Street’s expectations. Wall Street is responding – as of 12:30, the S&P Retail Index is down around $7.

The negative results are hitting all segments of retailers – from department stores to the mall, teen retailers to mass market merchandisers. Wal-Mart posted a positive sales increase of 3.0%, but that is less than the 3.5% increase that Wall Street was looking for. Target saw same store sales drop 1.2% in the month of July and warn that August isn’t going to be much better. JCPeneny’s sales dropped 6.5% but raised their Q2 guidance “due to better than expected sell-through of promotionally priced merchandise and continued expense management measures.” Kohl’s saw a steep 10.4 drop in same store sales in the month.

Gap saw negative numbers across all brands – Old Navy down 16%, Banana Republic down 8%, and Gap North America down 6%. When are they going to spin off the Old Navy brand, sell it, and let someone else deal with the turnaround?

Teen retailers aren’t seeing the Back to School numbers they hoped for with American Eagle down 7%, PacSun was down 4%, Abercrombie & Fitch (as a company) was down 7% (with only A&F proper posting flat numbers, up 1% for the month. Hollister was down 11% – blowing away the 4.1% decrease expected by analysts), but Aeropostale saw sales jump 13%.

More coverage from CNN/Money, Forbes, and Marketwatch.

Reminder, all of July’s numbers are available to analyze over at our partner site, Retail Numbers.

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Around the Web: Back to School 2008 Screenshot Edition

As always, I’m looking at a ton of e-commerce sites lately. Decided to run through some of the landing pages that I am seeing around the web right now to show off the variety of promotions and marketing going on. Though it’s not as denim-centric as it was two years ago, it’s obvious denim is still the #1 push in the back to school season.

Continue reading this entry

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Announcing: Retail Comp Sales Charts

In an effort to learn some new technology and add something new to this website, I have developed a simple application to track and graph retail monthly comp store sales data. Also known as same store sales, this is a measurement of change in sales in stores that have been open for over a year.

Located at http://www.noturnonred.org/charts, the Retail Monthly Comp Sales Charts is a dynamic application using PHP, Ajax, and MySQL. Still in it’s early stages, it will be updated monthly when the new retail numbers are announced. The database currently contains data for approximately 20 retailers that I cover often in this blog, from January 2005 to present. In addition to viewing the data by retailer, you can also compare two retailers over the same time period. With time, I will get additional retailers into the database and extend the range of information available.

I love looking at these numbers and I created this application for me to better spot trends in retailers’ sales.

For example, does American Eagle’s healthy sales this year make it appear that they could be in for a very solid back to school season? It seems that they have had a more positive trend this year, compared to some other similar retailers in the marketplace.




Could this slight uptick that AE is showing be the foundation for a great BTS season?

These are the kinds of things that I like to look at. While I may not always know the reasons for why things are trending one way or another, I still like to look at these numbers. I hope the application I have developed is useful to others, as well.

Again, the URL for the Retail Monthly Comp Sales Charts is http://www.noturnonred.org/charts/. Let me know what you think.

Note: Motley Fool has a very good roundup of what exactly these numbers are and what they mean to retailers and analysts. They explain all of this much better than I can.

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How Teens Shop: In-depth insight into teen shopping trends from the Washington Post

Today’s Washington Post has a very detailed, in-depth look into teen shopping habits that, I’m guessing, is going to make the rounds at corporate offices of mall retailers today:

Sixty-one teenagers from across the Washington region descended upon Tysons Corner on a recent Saturday. And we were there to capture it all.

We wanted to learn how today’s teens make their purchasing decisions, how they calculate value and how they figure out what’s cool. These teenage volunteers, all between seventh and 11th grade, brought their own money, friends and sense of style. Some came with their parents; some with their parents’ credit card. But all of them brought strong opinions about what they like — and what they don’t.

More than a dozen Washington Post and washingtonpost.com staff members documented the shopping expedition through stories, photographs, audio and video. We gained insight into teen consumer psychology and the latest trends, but we also learned a lot about the teenagers themselves.

With 10 associated articles, photos, video, and an interactive map detailing how many people visited different stores and how much money was spent, this is a rather fascinating read. Detailed, detailed, detailed. Only click on this link if you have time to kill, because it will suck you in with the amount of information available: Tracking Teen Shopping Habits.

I’m not going to be able to sumarize everything that the Washington Post has in that article, but there are a few points that jumped out at me that I’d like to share:

Collectively, the teens spent the most money at Hollister ($498) with Urban Outfitters a distant second ($319). $288 was spent at American Eagle while $198 was spent at Abercrombie & Fitch. Old Navy ranked up there, with over $160 being spent by these teenagers. Non-existant in this group was PacSun, with 10 visits and no money being spent.

These teenagers are smart. One article centers around their price conciousness (When Mom’s Not Paying, Cost Is a Deal-Breaker) and one article is about their shopping strategies (On a Mission to Buy, With a Plan of Attack). These teenagers came equipped with plans, checking out fashion and getting information from the retailer’s websites prior to stepping foot in the mail.

Where’d denim go? These kids aren’t shopping for jeans, apparently.

Teenagers aren’t just shopping at specialty retailers. This group is also looking at Macy’s, Nordstrom, Bloomingdale’s, and Lord and Taylor to find the best deals.

The work put in to this report from the Washington Post is incredible. Like I’ve already said, this is a really fantastic read with a ton of information.

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Express Lane for 5/31/2007

The Brand Man is speaking about the transformation of Ralph Lauren into a brand that targets all different lifestyle segments, while still remaining relevant and viable. Ralph Lauren is a model for the new way apparel makers are doing business – increasing sales, without diluting the brand.

Get Elastic has got a complete primer on social shopping, what it is, how you can participate, and what it means to retailers.

And finally, the Motley Fool has a in-depth look at the current status of Abercrombie & Fitch. The retailer has faced some challenges lately, with sales sluggish at best, but they still have solid bottom line performance. Did they miss a trend or are they just not doing enough to distinguish themselves?

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Levi’s, retail growth, new styles, and trend awareness

San Fransico Business Times, via MSNBC, has an article looking at new strategies being employed by the denim maker, Levi’s (see: Seeking a stylish strategy, Levi’s tries on girls’ jeans). Looking for a way to expand their market share and regain their position as a market leader, Levi’s is better look at styles they offer and rolling our new retail locations:

Opening its own stores is one way Levi’s can counter changes in the wholesale market, analysts say. It has already opened seven of a projected 20 stores in 2007. There are 45 U.S. stores now open.

“If you are an apparel supplier, it is imperative that you develop your own retail stores to protect your business,” said Howard Davidowitz, chairman of Davidowitz & Associates Inc., a national retail consulting firm. Though Levi’s still has an 80 percent share in department stores, “You can’t put your faith in department stores, who are pushing brands less and less and private label more and more.”

Retailers, like Kohl’s and JCPenney, have been aggressively pushing their private label brands over the national brands that were the cornerstones of their stores. This is not a trend unique to these mid-tier retailers, as this private label push is seen all throughout the retail spectrum. This doesn’t mean that iconic, national brands like Levi’s are going to disappear from stores anytime soon, but it does mean that they have to adapt to the marketplace and become more self-sufficient.

I’ve been to the Levi’s store in Atlantic City and it’s great. Every style of denim that one would be looking for is there, with great visual merchandising and one of the best denim presentations you will find anywhere. Levi’s knows how to create a destination shopping experience and make themselves look good.

These store fronts work in conjunction with the department stores that already carry Levi product. The department stores will, typically, serve as a means for the masses to pick up the go-to Levi styles, like the 501, 505, and 550. The Levi storefront reenforces the iconic nature of Levi and enhances awareness of the premium offerings that they have, including the $260 Redwire iPod jeans.

While Levi’s still has a good presence in department stores, I wonder how much of the overall denim has shifted away from department stores (and the Levi brand) and towards teen retailers such as Abercrombie & Fitch and American Eagle. I have to imagine that it has been a signifigent share.

The increased retail locations work well for Levi’s. They will increase brand awareness and drive bottom line results. But they still have to stay on top of the game, as far as trend and style, and it appears that they are:

For men, she’s chasing what she calls a “scene stealer,” a college-aged guy who’s fashion aware and spends more on clothing. His female counterpart is another that Levi’s is “aggressively pursuing.”

To reach these consumers, Zakem has overseen the design of a “slouch fit” jean for men that combines skate and urban cultures with a loose fit in the hips and seat but a tight fit at the lower leg. For women there’s a “perfectly slimming” jean that has a girdle-like technology in the waist.

Zakem said she will seed the coasts with these products, and if they succeed, they will work their denimmy way into the heartland and less edgy retailers.

The most important part of that section is how they say that they will seed the market with these new designs. Trends are important in fashion, but will make or break apparel makers depending on how they react to them. I don’t think that denim makers have seen the payoff in the skinny jean trend like they did with the boot cut/destroyed denim look of just a few years ago.

I am most excited about the growth of retail store locations by Levi’s. As I’ve already said, I think they are a great destination shopping experience. Excellent merchandising and visual presentation is something every shopper needs to see more of.

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April is U-G-L-Y

If you look at the retail comp store sales numbers for the month of April, you are looking at one ugly picture. But this was to be expected when taking into account the early Easter holiday this year.

For the month of April, the mall posted lackluster numbers: Abercrombie & Fitch saw a decrease of 14% (further breakdown of the brands: A&F adult -13, abercrombie, -18, Holister -17, & Ruehl -6), American Eagle down 10, Aeropostale down 14, Ann Taylor -12.8 (further breakdown of the brands: Ann Taylor -8.2 & Ann Taylor LOFT -17.4), Gap Inc down 16 (further breakdown of the brands: Gap North America -14, Banana Republic -13, Old Navy -20, and the International division -5), Hot Topic -9.1, Limited Brands -1.0, PacSun -14.

Some department stores saw slightly better numbers, but not all of them. Winners included Nordstrom (up 3.1) and Saks Fifth Avenue (up 11.7!!). On the flipside, Kohl’s was down 10.5, Federated was down 2.2, JCPenney was down 4.7, and Dillard’s was down 14.0.

Target saw a drop of 6.1 and Wal-Mart was down 3.5.

These numbers are bad, but are the indiciative of a worrisome trend? Look at March’s numbers and remember that these April numbers don’t include Easter. I think there are some retailers who are struggling, but the industry as a whole is just fine. A better picture of retail health will be seen over the next two weeks as retailers release their second quarter earnings results.

More information from Minyanville and the New York Times.

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Early Easter is good to retailers

Same store sales for the month of March are in. Easter fell a week earlier this year and that propelled retailers to a strong month. Across the board, analysts projections were beaten and CEOs are congratulating themselves on a job well done.

Mall based specialty retailers saw a stronger month than they had seen in recent memory: Same store sales were up at Abercrombie and Fitch (up 7.0% vs 1.4% estimate), American Eagle (up 20.0% vs 10.9% est), Aeropostale (up 15.9% vs 9.3% est), Hot Topic (3.4% vs 0.3%), and even Pacific Sunwear (14.1% vs 3.3%).

Gap Inc posted an overall increase of 6%, but look at the brand breakdown: Gap North America was up 4% vs. -13% the same month last year, Banana Republic up 8% vs. -7% last year, Old Navy up 10% vs -15% last year, and Gap International down 5% vs -16% last year. Overall the company showed a strong month, but I am most impressed by the gains at Old Navy. Female shoppers must be responding well to the new line of babydoll dresses (I know my girlfriend has! I’m sure at least 2 of Old Navy’s 10 percentage points increase are due to her March shopping).

Mid-tier department store retailers Kohl’s and JCPenney beat estimates with same store sale increases of 16.8% and 10.6% respectively. Nordstrom’s saw sales rise 15%, while Federated struggled and came in short of estimates (3.8%) with same store sales rising only 2.3%.

Like everyone else in my town, I found myself in my local Target at 9:30 the night before Easter looking for candy and easter baskets for my neices & nephews. With the way that place was cleared out, it’s no wonder Target as a chain posted a same store sales increase of 12%. Wal-Mart came in with a 4% increase. Not good, but not great.

More information from Minyanville and CNBC.

I am traditionally leary of the March or April sales on their own, due to the yearly differences in the date of Easter. I’m interested to see how well these numbers hold up when April’s final numbers come out. It looks like most retailers benefitted from the early Easter, which allowed those sales to get lumped in with March’s overall sales – as opposed to April last year.

Will April be as kind to retailers? Time will tell, but I’m betting that with the cold spell over the Northern part of this country that sales are going to be very, very interesting.

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December sluggish, full year outlooks slashed for some retailers

A mixed bag of results for retailers. Generally positive month for department stores, but a pretty wild range of results for mall-based retailers. More than a few full year outlooks have been cut, prompting investors to react accordingly.

Department stores fared decently with the mild weather. Same store sales for Kohl’s up 3.0%, JC Penney up 2.6%, Federated up 4.4%, Dillard’s fell 5%, Nordstrom was up 9.0%, and Saks was up 11.0%. Mixed bag of results, since even the positive gains for KSS, JCP, and Federated still fell below expectations.

Specialty retailers were generally beat this month. Same store sales for Abercrombie were down 1.0%, American Eagle was up 13.0%, Aeropostale was up 1.7%, Ann Taylor was down 5.3%, Gap down 8.0%, Hot Topic down 5.1%, Limited up 4.0%, and PacSun down 3.2%.

Target was up 4.1% while Wal-Mart same store sales were up 1.6%.

Seems like the mall stores, with space at a premium, were hurt the most by the mild weather nationally. With only so much space available in the store, and most of that devoted to sweaters and cold weather accessories, things can go sour fast when no one is shopping for that.

More coverage from Minyanville.

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