No Turn On Red

In an effort to learn some new technology and add something new to this website, I have developed a simple application to track and graph retail monthly comp store sales data. Also known as same store sales, this is a measurement of change in sales in stores that have been open for over a year.

Located at http://www.noturnonred.org/charts, the Retail Monthly Comp Sales Charts is a dynamic application using PHP, Ajax, and MySQL. Still in it’s early stages, it will be updated monthly when the new retail numbers are announced. The database currently contains data for approximately 20 retailers that I cover often in this blog, from January 2005 to present. In addition to viewing the data by retailer, you can also compare two retailers over the same time period. With time, I will get additional retailers into the database and extend the range of information available.

I love looking at these numbers and I created this application for me to better spot trends in retailers’ sales.

For example, does American Eagle’s healthy sales this year make it appear that they could be in for a very solid back to school season? It seems that they have had a more positive trend this year, compared to some other similar retailers in the marketplace.

Could this slight uptick that AE is showing be the foundation for a great BTS season?

These are the kinds of things that I like to look at. While I may not always know the reasons for why things are trending one way or another, I still like to look at these numbers. I hope the application I have developed is useful to others, as well.

Again, the URL for the Retail Monthly Comp Sales Charts is http://www.noturnonred.org/charts/. Let me know what you think.

Note: Motley Fool has a very good roundup of what exactly these numbers are and what they mean to retailers and analysts. They explain all of this much better than I can.

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If you look at the retail comp store sales numbers for the month of April, you are looking at one ugly picture. But this was to be expected when taking into account the early Easter holiday this year.

For the month of April, the mall posted lackluster numbers: Abercrombie & Fitch saw a decrease of 14% (further breakdown of the brands: A&F adult -13, abercrombie, -18, Holister -17, & Ruehl -6), American Eagle down 10, Aeropostale down 14, Ann Taylor -12.8 (further breakdown of the brands: Ann Taylor -8.2 & Ann Taylor LOFT -17.4), Gap Inc down 16 (further breakdown of the brands: Gap North America -14, Banana Republic -13, Old Navy -20, and the International division -5), Hot Topic -9.1, Limited Brands -1.0, PacSun -14.

Some department stores saw slightly better numbers, but not all of them. Winners included Nordstrom (up 3.1) and Saks Fifth Avenue (up 11.7!!). On the flipside, Kohl’s was down 10.5, Federated was down 2.2, JCPenney was down 4.7, and Dillard’s was down 14.0.

Target saw a drop of 6.1 and Wal-Mart was down 3.5.

These numbers are bad, but are the indiciative of a worrisome trend? Look at March’s numbers and remember that these April numbers don’t include Easter. I think there are some retailers who are struggling, but the industry as a whole is just fine. A better picture of retail health will be seen over the next two weeks as retailers release their second quarter earnings results.

More information from Minyanville and the New York Times.

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Same store sales for the month of March are in. Easter fell a week earlier this year and that propelled retailers to a strong month. Across the board, analysts projections were beaten and CEOs are congratulating themselves on a job well done.

Mall based specialty retailers saw a stronger month than they had seen in recent memory: Same store sales were up at Abercrombie and Fitch (up 7.0% vs 1.4% estimate), American Eagle (up 20.0% vs 10.9% est), Aeropostale (up 15.9% vs 9.3% est), Hot Topic (3.4% vs 0.3%), and even Pacific Sunwear (14.1% vs 3.3%).

Gap Inc posted an overall increase of 6%, but look at the brand breakdown: Gap North America was up 4% vs. -13% the same month last year, Banana Republic up 8% vs. -7% last year, Old Navy up 10% vs -15% last year, and Gap International down 5% vs -16% last year. Overall the company showed a strong month, but I am most impressed by the gains at Old Navy. Female shoppers must be responding well to the new line of babydoll dresses (I know my girlfriend has! I’m sure at least 2 of Old Navy’s 10 percentage points increase are due to her March shopping).

Mid-tier department store retailers Kohl’s and JCPenney beat estimates with same store sale increases of 16.8% and 10.6% respectively. Nordstrom’s saw sales rise 15%, while Federated struggled and came in short of estimates (3.8%) with same store sales rising only 2.3%.

Like everyone else in my town, I found myself in my local Target at 9:30 the night before Easter looking for candy and easter baskets for my neices & nephews. With the way that place was cleared out, it’s no wonder Target as a chain posted a same store sales increase of 12%. Wal-Mart came in with a 4% increase. Not good, but not great.

More information from Minyanville and CNBC.

I am traditionally leary of the March or April sales on their own, due to the yearly differences in the date of Easter. I’m interested to see how well these numbers hold up when April’s final numbers come out. It looks like most retailers benefitted from the early Easter, which allowed those sales to get lumped in with March’s overall sales - as opposed to April last year.

Will April be as kind to retailers? Time will tell, but I’m betting that with the cold spell over the Northern part of this country that sales are going to be very, very interesting.

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A mixed bag of results for retailers. Generally positive month for department stores, but a pretty wild range of results for mall-based retailers. More than a few full year outlooks have been cut, prompting investors to react accordingly.

Department stores fared decently with the mild weather. Same store sales for Kohl’s up 3.0%, JC Penney up 2.6%, Federated up 4.4%, Dillard’s fell 5%, Nordstrom was up 9.0%, and Saks was up 11.0%. Mixed bag of results, since even the positive gains for KSS, JCP, and Federated still fell below expectations.

Specialty retailers were generally beat this month. Same store sales for Abercrombie were down 1.0%, American Eagle was up 13.0%, Aeropostale was up 1.7%, Ann Taylor was down 5.3%, Gap down 8.0%, Hot Topic down 5.1%, Limited up 4.0%, and PacSun down 3.2%.

Target was up 4.1% while Wal-Mart same store sales were up 1.6%.

Seems like the mall stores, with space at a premium, were hurt the most by the mild weather nationally. With only so much space available in the store, and most of that devoted to sweaters and cold weather accessories, things can go sour fast when no one is shopping for that.

More coverage from Minyanville.

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Headline says it all, folks. CVS Corp. reports that their July same store sales rose 9.5% on the backs of prescription drugs, beating Wall Street estimates. Sales of nonprescription merchandise rose 7% in the month, beating the 5.6% estimate. Not a bad month for the #2 drugstore chain in the country.

More from CNN/Money.

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A few days late on this one, but July’s same store sales numbers came out on Thursday and the brightest spot was how well department stores did. Federated up 3.3%, JC Penney up 4.9%, Kohl’s up 5.9%, Nordstrom up 5.3%, and Saks up 2.4%. All of these beat or were in line with analysts predictions.

Mall retailers posted mixed results: Abercrombie & Fitch posted an increase of 3% (with A&F namesake stores up 1%, abercrombie kids up 5%, Hollister up 5%, and Ruehl up 36%), American Eagle Outfitters up 7%, Ann Taylor up 5.1%, Gap Inc. down 4% (with Gap nakesake stores down 13%, Old Navy & Banana Republic reporting flat sales, and Gap International stores down 6%), Hot Topic was down 7.2%, Limited Brands up 7.0%, and PacSun was down 10.6%.

Target was up 3.1% while Wal-Mart was up 2.4%. Costco was up 7.0% while BJ’s Wholesale was up 1.9%.

Interesting results as it seems shoppers are going to the department stores for their Back to School shopping. Department stores were up 4.1% this month compared with a 0.5% increase in July of 2005. Will this trend continue through August?

As I mentioned the other day, I’m not suprised to see flat sales at Abercrombie & Fitch namesake stores with stronger comp numbers coming from American Eagle Outfitters. But like I said, the real interesting numbers will be out next week with the Q2 results from these retailers.

Still think Gap can start a turnaround. Like I’ve said, I already like the new store experiences and merchandise from Old Navy and Gap. I think it will take longer to execute the turnaround and will be a prolonged process, lasting several seasons, before we really see any true signs of a turnaround. Q2 numbers are going to be ugly judging from the amount of markdowns I’ve seen at some of the Gaps and Old Navys that I’ve been in.

More coverage from Minyanville’s Retail Roundup, Investor’s Business Daily, and Reuters.

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June retail sales came out on Thursday and, since I was tied up with working on the redesign, I did not get to comment on them at the time.

According to the New York Times:

Consumers proved fickle in June, bypassing popular chains like Wal-Mart and Abercrombie & Fitch and heading instead for department store like J.C. Penney and Kohl’s, new sales figures indicate.

Sales at retail chains rose 2.8 percent last month from the same month a year earlier, less than the forecast 3 percent gain, according to Retail Metrics, a research firm.

The results, though hardly dismal, unnerved industry executives, who are worried that higher gasoline prices may be crimping consumer spending on other goods.

Taking a look at some of the specifics: In the mall - Abercrombie & Fitch was down 4% (namesake stores were down 10%, Hollister stores were down 1%, and the small a, abercrombie kids, was up 9%), Aeropostale was up 5.3%, American Eagle was up 6.4%, Ann Taylor beat all estimates with a 12.5% gain, Gap as a company was down 6% (namesake stores were down 4%, Banana Republic was down 4%, Old Navy was down 6%, and Gap International was down 14%), Hot Topic slipped 3.4%, Limited Brands rose 3% but didn’t beat estimates, and Pacific Sunwear dropping 2.7%.

Department stores led the way this month with JC Penney rising 4.3%, Federated up 1.7%, Kohl’s posting a positive 7.1% comp, Nordstrom up 4.7%, and Saks up 4.7%.

And like the trend over the past few months, Wal-Mart blames gas prices for it’s weak 1.2% comp while Target says nothing and posts a positive 4.8% comp.

The New York Times has a few good roundups of the trends in their articles Retail Sales Fall Short of Forecast and Department Stores Staged a Comeback In June. For two more roundups, there is also the Associated Press and the always reliable and funny Minyanville.

For reference, you can review the results from May and April.

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The May comp store numbers for the retail industry:

In the mall: Abercrombie up 3.0, Aeropostale down 1.1, American Eagle up 11.0, Ann Taylor up 12.0 , Hot Topic down 6.0, Limited Brands up 7.0, and Pacific Sunwear down 2.6. Gap as a company was down 6.0, however the break down between companies is interesting. Gap North America was down 5.0, Gap International is down 13.0, Old Navy was down 8.0, but Banana Republic is starting to show signs of a turnaround with a 3.0 positive comp.

In the department store sector: Dillard’s up 3.0, Federated up 9.2, JC Penny up 11.1, Kohl’s up 3.1, Nordstrom up 7.8, and Saks up 5.7.

In the battle of Target v. Wal-Mart and warehouse stores v. warehouse stores, Target was up 5.7 & Wal-Mart was up 2.0. Sam’s Club was up 4.0 while BJ’s Wholesale was up 4.2 and Costco was up 10.0.

Generally a pretty positive month across the board. Gap continues to struggle and Kohl’s is curiously one of the few companies with positive marks that didn’t beat investor estimates. Pacific Sunwear was down 2.6 after a fantastic April in which they posted a 14.0 positive comp.

Minyanville posts a good roundup of the May numbers, covering some retailers I didn’t cover here.

Interesting month and a good start to the Summer season in retail.

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Minyanville has posted a great roundup of all of the retail sales reports for April. They’ve got comp percentages for just about everyone and snarky comments for about half. I love it.

Retailers benefitted from the late Easter and most were really able to drive sales through the roof. Great numbers for some of the chains, not so great for others. Department and discount stores mainly show positive results: Federated down .8, Target up 10.4, Wal-mart up 6.8, Kohls up 13.4, Jc Penny up 2.6, Dillards up 10, Nordstrom up 7.3. Teen specialty retailers continue to show positive results: Abercrombie up another 17, Aeropostale up 8.4, American Eagle up 19, Pacsun up 14. The rest of the mall is hit and miss with Ann Taylor up 10.9, Children’s Place up 22, Claire’s Stores up 9 but Gap continues it’s downward trend, down 3 and Hot Topic was down 6.5.

Generally a pretty positive month but those with few suprises in retailers who didn’t beat their estimates or show a positive trend.

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