7/23/06 Retail Notes
Back to school is in full swing and Marketwatch (see: Back to school shopping … already?) and Reuters (see: Back-to-school styles hit mall amid spending fears) have it covered.
The Marketwatch article touches on a few good points:
Staples is promising students that they can stock up on supplies for less than the cost of a gallon of gas.
“We have never advertised this early in the season,” said Petter Knutrud, vice president of merchandising at Staples. “Last year our competition was out there as early as the second week of July. We felt forced into going out early this year.
“We have felt the creep of the season earlier and earlier,” he said.
The BTS season seems to get longer and longer each year. But if you’re not already pushing BTS at the beginning of your July, your competitor probably is.
But with the longer season, comes this:
Traditionally, retailers would pull out all the heavy fall gear with back-to-school merchandise. But now that most consumers shop with a buy-now, wear-now mentality, retailers adjust by selling seasonal transitional clothing in lighter weights in the summer months before bringing out the cable-knit sweaters and wool pants in September.
“If it’s 92 degrees out, you’re going to have a problem when people want lighter colors,” Davidowitz said. “There are darker colors for the fall, but the fabrication is lighter.”
What’s more, an earlier start to the back-to-school season allows retailers to test fashions and styles before the season gets in full swing. If, say, skinny jeans and tunics fail to fly out the door at the speed and price many retailers expect want, there’s still time in the season to change the mix, adjust the pricing and cut back on the inventory.
Walk around your mall tomorrow. You’ll see that some retailers are embracing the longer season by offering a better assortment, targeted to the wear-now crowd. Think transitional knits and updated Fall capris and shorts, while others are stocked full of hoodies and pants. I don’t remember seeing the assortment of shorts and capris, at this time of year, that I’ve seen recently.
Fact of the matter is that come September 1, kids may be going back to school, but that doesn’t meant the weather is going to be at a point where everyone is completely bundled up. Capris, more so than shorts, have an extended life span now due to evolving trends. There are some retailers who reacted to that this year but some, obviously, just don’t get it.
Maybe it’s just a way for retailers to benefit from global warming.
But seriously - I think that there are going to a few suprises with next week’s July comp sales numbers. My sources tell me that there is one mall retailer that is having a very good month so far. Although one month can be a blip on the radar, expect Wall Street to pay closer attention to one forgotten stock.
In other things -
Looks like progress may be moving in one local development that is set to fill it’s vacant spaces with a Cold Stone Creamery, LA Fitness, Jos A Banks, Fatburger, and the New Jersey debut of a Salsarita’s. If you know me, you know that I like tacos - so you can guess which store I am most interested in. Fatburger announced the lease signing on March 28, 2005. Was this really held up for over a year and a half because of sidewalk installations?
From Monday’s New York Times - Macy’s, Unwrapped - a story about the new reality series about the behind-the-scenes life of Macy’s. Yes, you read it right. The world’s most famous retailer is going to be featured on the WE Network this Fall. Looks like my Tivo just got a new season pass.
Also from Monday’s New York Times, Football Calls, and Reebok Responds. Can a new marketing campaign increase Reebok’s marketshare in performance/active categories?
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I really enjoy your Retail Notes posts, this is no exception.
Interesting about BTS- do you think this pattern will hold true for other big shopping seasons as well? It seems like Christmas comes earlier every year, with retailers bringing out their Xmas materials shortly after Halloween in some cases. What’s the threshold?
Thanks for your comment, Finn.
The threshold for seasonal transition lies in what customers will bear. Within 24 hours of having Christmas merchandise out last year, at the end of September, customers were shopping and buying merchandise. If there’s money to be made, retailers are going to make it - so if customers are going to buy the merchandise that “early”, then who’s to say it’s really too early?
The important thing is to transition well - which some retailers do well and others don’t. There’s no need to rush out all of the seasonal merchandise at one time, which is why it’s accceptable to roll out a small holiday shop in mid/late-September, gradually getting bigger in tiered, timed increments throughout the season.